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Geregistreerd op: 17-1-2019
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BerichtGeplaatst: Wo Jun 26, 2019 2:18 am    Onderwerp: Brett-Maher-Jersey Reageer met quote

Even at the risk of bringing on an ďavalanche of illogicĒ (per Mike Fisher) when saying anything slightly positive about the Cowboy , Iím going to start this post with some good news.The Cowboys have only been called for 20 accepted penalties on offense this season. On a per-game basis, that ties the Cowboys for the 13th-fewest penalties in the league. Things look even better on defense, where they are tied for the 9th-fewest penalties (15). It wasnít so long ago that the Cowboys regularly ranked among the most penalized teams in the league, so thatís definitely something to feel good about. Unfortunately, thatís it in terms of good news for today. So now for the bad news.16 of those 20 penalties resulted in a stalled drive, meaning no points were scored on the drive and no first down was achieved after the penalty incurred. So when you see an offensive penalty and automatically believe that drive is dead, thatís because four out of five times it actually is.And that stalled drive percentage of 80% ranks the Cowboys dead last in a league where the average is 56% and the best teams have a rate below 40%. Some will be quick to point out that this is all on the coaching, which would be true if it werenít for the players committing the penalties. Others will reflexively blame Jerry Jones for this, which would be at least partly true if we were talking about the 1964 University of Arkansas National Championship team for which he played on the offensive line and was a co-captain. And so it is that almost every time the discussion turns to problems the Cowboys have, some intellectual high-flyer will inevitably propose a simple solution to the problem like ďFire Jason Garrett,Ē which is inevitably followed by ď!!!,Ē because everybody knows that extra exclamation marks automatically validate the preceding message; the exclamation mark has become the selfie of grammar.But like in every other avenue of life, while simple answers are attractive precisely because they are less intellectually demanding, they also almost never work.So letís study the data a bit further to find out whatís ailing the Cowboys offense, and weíll start by breaking down the calls that have gone against the Cowboys this year, by player, not including penalties that were declined or offset: The penalties here didnít just go against some scrubs, they include some of the faces of the franchise: two former number one picks in Smith and Elliott, the quarterback (I put Prescott in here for the three delay-of-game penalties, but the NFL considers these a team penalty and doesnít assign them to an individual player), a second-round pick in Williams, and in Collins a guy who was almost a first-round pick.Should Garrett bench Prescott for a couple of snaps after every delay-of-game penalty? Tell Tyron Smith to sit in a corner for a drive and reflect on what a bad boy heís been for that holding penalty? Take away Laíel Collinsí helmet after every penalty and tell him to ďthink about what youíve done.Ē How about cutting Ezekiel Elliott to set an example; after all, Jimmy Johnson would have done that, no?The O-line is responsible for 12 of the 20 penalties and 9 of the 16 stalled drives, and while that may be part of the reason why Paul Alexander was fired, thatís not enough to blame the O-line alone for the stalled drives. Or any other player for that matter.Another data point worth looking at is when the penalties happened, on the hypothesis that a penalty on third down will be a lot harder to overcome than a penalty on first down. Hereís the split for the penalties on the 16 stalled drives:1st down: 4 penalties2nd down: 5 penalties3rd down: 7 penaltiesInterestingly, of the four penalties that didnít result in a stalled drive, three were on 1st down, one on 2nd. That suggests incurring more penalties on later downs was likely detrimental to the Cowboysí stuffed drive percentage, but itís probably not enough to explain away the Cowboysí 80% stuffed drive percentage.On to our next and final data point, in which we look at what the Cowboys did on the play immediately following the penalty. On 14 of the 16 plays, the Cowboys offense had 10 or more yards to go. Here are the details: Two things stand out to me here:Why would you run on any down with 15+ yards to go? I understand the theoretical need to get the run/pass balance right, but when you know your offense has issues when itís behind the sticks, why call a run that will net you five or six yards when you need 15+? Whatís up with the short passes on long downs?The Cowboys chose a pass play on nine of the 14 plays in the chart above. None of them netted more than 13 yards Jeff Heath Jersey , most were completions well sort of the sticks. Itíd be easy to simply blame this on the quarterback and be done with it, but that would be too simple. The issue here is that the Cowboys donít seem to have any plays that will reliably result in long completions. And thatís on the QB. But itís also on the receivers. And the O-line. And the playcalling. And the offensive scheme. And on Jerry Jones, because, well, ... because!!! Perhaps the issues after penalties are symptomatic of a more general issue for the Cowboys offense: the inability to generate big plays when they need them.On 2nd or 3rd down with 11+ yards to go, the 2018 Cowboys achieved a 1st down on just four out of 46 plays (8.7%). That 1st-down percentage ranks them 31st in a league that averages 15.7% and where the leading team (Chargers) averages 37%.Which means the inability to convert after a penalty is not an issue specific to penalties, but is merely an indication of a much broader issue in Dallas. The Cowboys are a run-first, ball-control offense. As such, the entire offense is predicated on ďstaying on scheduleĒ with a high percentage of runs and a lot of short passes on first and second down that are designed to get the team into manageable third-down situations. That methodical approach to moving the chains is only occasionally interspersed with a play designed to gain big yardage. In 2016, that worked perfectly. The Cowboys stormed to a 13-3 record by staying on schedule: No team ran the ball on a higher percentage of first-down plays than the Cowboys, who did it on 59.8% of all first downs. Ezekiel Elliott led the league in first-down rushes with 204, averaging 5.5 yards a pop en route to establishing one of the most efficient offenses in the league that year. The Cowboys averaged 6.84 yards-to-go on third down, the sixth-best value in the league; Dak Prescott had the sixth-best completion percentage in the NFL on third downs (65.1%) and the sixth-best passer rating. All of this resulted in an offense that ranked fourth overall with 2.54 points scored per drive.The problem is that a penalty (or any other play that results in a loss of yardage), short-circuits that entire offensive plan. Suddenly the offense is derailed and no longer ďon scheduleĒ. And when that happens, teams usually thumb through their playbook until they reach the Ďbig-play section.í Unfortunately for the Cowboys, most of the pages in the big-play section are either blank or filled with plays the team canít properly execute.Which is why in 2018, the offense isnít working anymore. The Cowboys are still running the ball a lot on first down (ranked fourth with 58.4% of runs on first down), and Ezekiel Elliott still runs a lot on first down (ranked fourth with 83 runs) averaging an impressive 5.7 yards. But the Cowboys are now facing 7.38 yards-to-go on third down, which ranks them 22nd in the league. And partly as a result, Dak Prescottís completion percentage on third downs has regressed to 58.9% and his passer rating on third downs is a subterranean 77.1. All of which results in an offense that ranks just 19th with 1.93 points per drive. Perhaps the coaching change at O-line will improve an O-line that has allowed 23 sacks (ranked 24th). Perhaps the addition of Amari Cooper will improve a receiving corps that has accumulated just 595 yards after catch (ranked 31st).Perhaps Dak Prescott will continue to play as efficiently as he has in the last four games (96.5 passer rating) after his bumbling start to the season (74.5 passer rating in first three games).Perhaps the Cowboys will trade for a TE. Perhaps the coaching staff has used the bye week to fill the blank pages in the big play section of the playbook with ďcoolĒ plays the players can actually execute effectively.Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.In the end, the Cowboys of the first seven weeks werenít able to convert enough plays with 11+ yards to go. Their current 1st-down percentage of 8.7% pales against the 17.2% they achieved in 2016. Penalties are not derailing the 2018 offense. But the failure to execute their offensive scheme is. Fix that and things could be looking up again. Now that the Super Bowl is over, the full draft order has been set except for compensatory picks which will be awarded later this offseason, It is the time for mock drafts. Most mock drafts out there just focus on the first round, but the Cowboys donít have a first round pick this year. Thus, here is a full, three-round mock draft that features the Cowboys picks. First Round: 1. Arizona Cardinals - Nick Bosa, EDGE - Ohio State2. San Francisco 49ers - Quinnen Williams, DT - Alabama3. New York Jets - Josh Allen, EDGE - Kentucky4. Oakland Raiders - Clelin Ferrell, EDGE - Clemson5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jawaan Taylor, OT - Florida6. New York Giants - Dwayne Haskins, QB - Ohio State7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Kyler Murray, QB - Oklahoma8. Detroit Lions - Greedy Williams Tyrone Crawford Color Rush Jersey , CB - LSU9. Buffalo Bills - Níkeal Harry, WR - Arizona State10. Denver Broncos - Drew Lock, QB - Missouri11. Cincinnati Bengals - Devin White, LB - LSU12. Green Bay Packers - Montez Sweat, EDGE - Mississippi State13. Miami Dolphins - Ed Oliver, DT - Houston14. Atlanta Falcons - Jonah Williams, OL - Alabama15. Washington Redskins - Daniel Jones, QB - Duke16. Carolina Panthers - Deionte Thompson, S - Alabama17. Cleveland Browns - Jeffery Simmons, DT - Mississippi State18. Minnesota Vikings - Beau Benzschawel, OG - Wisconsin19. Tennessee Titans - AJ Brown, WR - Ole Miss20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Deandre Baker, CB - Georgia21. Seattle Seahawks - Nasir Adderley, S - Delaware22. Baltimore Ravens - DK Metcalf, WR - Ole Miss23. Houston Texans - Cody Ford, OT - Oklahoma24. Oakland Raiders (from CHI) - Rashan Gary, DT - Michigan25. Philadelphia Eagles - Byron Murphy, CB - Washington26. Indianapolis Colts - Mack Wilson, LB - Alabama27. Oakland Raiders (from DAL) - Trayvon Mullen, CB - Clemson28. Los Angeles Chargers - Tyler Biadasz, C - Wisconsin29. Kansas City Chiefs - Brian Burns, EDGE - Florida State30. Green Bay Packers (from NO) - Marquise Brown, WR - Oklahoma31. LosAngeles Rams - Jaylon Ferguon, EDGE - Louisiana Tech32. New England Patriots - Noah Fant, TE - IowaSecond Round33. Arizona Cardinals - Dalton Risner, OL - Kansas State34. Indianapolis Colts - Taylor Rapp, S - Washington 35. Oakland Raiders - Kelvin Harmon, WR - NC State36. San Francisco 49ers - Riley Ridley, WR - Georgia37. New York Giants - Chris Lindstrom, OG - Boston College38. Jacksonville Jaguars - Greg Little, OT - Ole Miss39. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Zach Allen, EDGE - Boston College40. Buffalo Bills - Garrett Bradbury, OL - NC State41. Denver Broncos - Michael Deiter, OG - Wisconsin42. Cincinnati Bengals - Will Grier, QB - West Virginia43. Detroit Lions - Chase Winovich , EDGE - Michigan44. Green Bay Packers - TJ Hockenson, TE - Iowa45. Atlanta Falcons - Amani Oruwariye, CB - Penn State46. Washington Redskins - Ross Pierschbacher, OG - Alabama47. Carolina Panthers - David Edwards, OT - Wisconsin48. Miami Dolphins - Oshane Ximines - Old Dominion49. Cleveland Browns - Charles Omenihu, DL - Texas50. Minnesota Vikings - Dexter Lawrence, DT - Clemson51. Tennessee Titans - Joejuan Williams, CB - Vanderbilt52. Pittsburgh Steelers - Deebo Samuel, WR - South Carolina53. Philadelphia Eagles - Johnathan Abram, S - Mississippi State54. Houston Texans - Dru Samia, OG - Oklahoma55. Houston Texans - Isaiah Buggs, DT - Alabama56. New England Patriots - DreíMont Jones, DT - Ohio State57. Philadelphia Eagles - Josh Jacobs, RB - Alabama58. Dallas Cowboys - Renell Wren, DT - Arizona StatePhoto by Christian Petersen/Getty Images- Check out the full scouting report on Wren here. With the 58th pick in the draft, the Cowboys find a player that many will refer to as a bull in a china shop. Wren is supremely athletic and has all the natural talent to be a productive pass rushing 3-technique in Dallasí scheme. Heíll need to refine his techniques, but thatís what Rod Marinelli does best. Wren will fit in nicely along this defensive line rotation and give the Cowboys some serious juice up the middle.59. Indianapolis Colts - Jerry Tillery, DT - Notre Dame60. Los Angeles Chargers - Devin Bush, LB - Michigan61. Kansas City Chiefs - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S - Florida62. New Orleans Saints - David Long, LB - West Virginia63. Kansas City Chiefs - David Montgomery, RB - Iowa State64. New England Patriots - JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR - StanfordThird Round65. Arizona Cardinals - Elgton Jenkins, OL - Mississippi State66. Oakland Raiders - Jarrett Stidham, QB - Auburn67. San Francisco 49ers - Julian Love, CB - Notre Dame68. New York Jets - Hakeem Butler, WR - Iowa State69. Jacksonville Jaguars - Gerald Willis, DT - Miami70. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jaquan Johnson, S - Miami71. Denver Broncos - Rock Ya-Sin, CB - Temple72. Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Dillard, OT - Washington State73. New England Patriots - Brett Rypien, QB - Boise State74. Buffalo Bills - Damien Harris, RB - Alabama75. Green Bay Packers - Kris Boyd, CB - Texas76. Washington Redskins - Darnell Savage, S - Maryland77. Carolina Panthers - Sutton Smith Randy Gregory Jersey , EDGE - Northern Illinois78. Miami Dolphins - Tre Lamar, LB - Clemson79. Atlanta Falcons - DíAndre Walker, EDGE - Georgia80. Cleveland Browns - Irv Smith Jr., TE - Alabama81. Minnesota Vikings - Max Scharping, OT - Northern Illinois82. Tennessee Titans - TeíVon Coney, LB - Notre Dame83. Pittsburgh Steelers - Rodney Anderson, RB - Oklahoma84. Seattle Seahawks - Michael Dogbe, DT - Temple85. Baltimore Ravens - Darrell Henderson, RB - Memphis86. Houston Texans - David Long, CB - Michigan87. Chicago Bears - Andy Isabella, WR - University of Massachusetts88. Detroit Lions - Kaden Smith, TE - Standford89. Indianapolis Colts - Devin Singletary, RB - Florida Atlantic90. Dallas Cowboys - Juan Thornhill, S - VirginiaPhoto by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images- Check out the full scouting report of Thornhill here. That Thornhill is still available this late obviously goes against what most draft experts are saying about the player at this point in the draft process. We recognize that most mocks and rankings have Thornhill in the second round range. And that may still be the case come draft day, but for this exercise I have him sliding.Looking at his tape, Thornhill lacks the explosiveness and range of an elite safety, and there are other more athletic safeties in this class. If he turns in a quality time in the 40, three-cone and other tests at the Combine, though, thereís no way he makes it out of the second round, but that remains to be seen. As of now, the tape shows a technically sound safety without top-notch athleticism.If he does fall this far, though, the Cowboys will gladly scoop him up, as Thornhill slots nicely into the strong safety role and should easily displace Jeff Heath. Playing alongside Xavier Woods a young safety tandem filled with potential. It would be up to Kris Richard to help them take the next step. 91. Los Angeles Chargers - Ryan Finley, QB - NC State92. Kansas City Chiefs - Daniel Wise, DT - Kansas93. New York Jets - Jace Sternberger, TE - Texas A&M94. Jacksonville Jaguars - Benny Snell, RB - Kentucky95. Cleveland Browns - Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma
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